Does it sound insensitive OR absolutely cruel — especially when Migrant Workers have become an ‘anonymous’ symbol of India’s fight against Covid-19? I know it is, but I still don’t want them to come back. Before, I get into the other side of my inhuman and inconsiderate argument, let’s try and understand who is this ‘Migrant Worker’.
He is one who is constructing your malls, hotels, schools, airports, metro stations, hospitals, etc. He meets you everyday, you probably met him today when he delivered the pizza at your home. He might have driven you to your office during this lock-down (assuming you are an essential services worker and still going to your workplace). Or she might have sold you fresh fruits and vegetables last evening outside your gated community, for which you must have bargained very hard (and felt good about it). Migrant workers represent almost 70–80% of the informal sector’s workforce today. People are now realizing that migrant workers form an integral part of the economic value chain irrespective of the economic activity being undertaken. These people come from villages and small towns to look for employment opportunities in big cities. This sudden ‘reverse migration’ has created a chaos in the country and resulted into an uncertain future for millions of these workers. The pictures of people walking ~200kms (literally) to get to their villages is so moving. But what to do, when you lose your livelihood with a 4 hours notice and have only uncertainty about its revival — you go back to where you come from. As per media reports, more than half a million workers have already left the cities since the crisis hit us and more are likely to follow. It is most obvious that they would get back to one of the oldest professions in the world, agriculture, at least for the time being. That’s where I begin to think that they should stay back.
I am told its OK to find ‘silver linings’ in this crisis, I did follow the advice and talked about population control in my last article. Now I am taking this liberty further and extending it to build on to my above inconsiderate argument.
The current ‘reverse migration’ can help accelerate what I believe could be the next wave of major reforms in agriculture. This might lead us to become more sustainable agrarian economy. Agriculture today contributes ~16% of India’s GDP and supports almost 60% of the population (~700 Mn — more than the population of entire South East Asia region). Few of the astonishing facts about Indian agriculture are as below:
- leading producer of rice, wheat and millet
- largest producer of many horticulture crops — banana, guava, mango, potatoes, eggplant, ginger, soybean, etc.
- average yield (tonnes/ ha) lower than other large producers like US, China, European nations
- more than 55% of the arable land depends on monsoon (rainfall)
- post-harvest losses as high as 30% of the total produce (highest in horticulture crops)
- commercial processing component is lowest in the world ~3% (countries like Thailand, Malaysia process almost upto 75% of the produce)
- gross capital formation over the years has been stagnant
- average land holding is ~1.1 ha (one of the lowest in the world)
The list is long but the key message here is there lot to be done. These are not new issues, entire administration machinery is well aware of them— but I feel this time we might see some much awaited action on ground. There is going to be surplus workforce in the rural areas now and its going to stay like this for the foreseeable future. This puts tremendous pressure on the government think-tanks as to how they provide these people with livelihood. This is also a great opportunity for government to have a re-look at the core issues impacting the sector and take some immediate corrective action. Agriculture is a state subject in India so its imperative that central and state governments work together to harness these opportunities and make right investments. Couple of the points above like post-harvest losses and low processing component are easily (relatively) addressable. Post harvest losses are primarily due to poor infrastructure of cold chains, warehouses, logistics facilities, etc. The two main reasons for low commercial processing of produce have been, 1) high demand of fresh fruits and vegetables in domestic markets and 2) huge investment required in setting up these food processing industries. May be, its time to make this investment, address these issues and create sustainable employment in rural areas. Inspite of challenges like high post harvest loses, India still leads the chart as top producer nation. So investments into building irrigation infrastructure (getting more area under irrigation), canals, localized rainwater harvesting structures at farm level, improving post harvest handling of crops will lead to a bumper crop harvesting every year — which should take care of domestic demand and provide enough input for further processing (value added products) as well. This will automatically create a sustenance in the system. Governments need to cultivate a new breed of Agri-entrepreneurs and provide them with enough capital, technical know how and more so access to good market. Agri-processing has huge export potential provided the output quality meets the international standards. Corporate and Agri-business houses can lead the path here and we have seen it working in the case of Contract Farming in some parts of the country. The same arrangement can be extended for exports. Chinese way of farming — called Collective or Community farming — can also be tested in some areas with little tweaks to retain the workforce in villages and give them livelihood support.
With concerns like climate change, uncertainty of natural factors, ill effects of overuse of chemicals in farming — the whole world is looking for ways to move towards sustainable agriculture and organic farming. For India its not a new concept, farmers have been practicing organic farming since medieval times. The main reasons* farmers shifted towards usage of chemical fertilizers and pesticides were organic farming being very labour intensive, expensive and offered low returns. Hence, its the right time to press the button for Orange Revolution at a large scale when you have surplus labour available in rural areas, increased awareness about organic products and changing consumers’ habits. There needs to be an appropriate and timely state support to ensure these opportunities are capitalized. Yes, that’s why I don’t want labour to migrate back to cities. I am afraid if the large number of workers go back after the crisis, agriculture (and rural economy at large) will again lose government’s attention and reforms process might get paralyzed.
This leads us to the next obvious question — who will build our malls then, who will delivery food at our doorstep, who will guard our buildings, etc. etc. Well, the simple answer is other migrant workers - because not all of them are going back. There are hundreds and thousands who are 2nd or 3rd generation of migrant workers living in slums in big cities like Mumbai and Delhi. These cities are their home now, they probably have nothing to go back to. The question is whether they have the right skill sets to be employed. Large corporate and business houses need to invest in skill training to ensure labour productivity. Industrial houses also need to be prepared for another pandemic which might be even bigger or worse than Covid and the so called luxury to have ‘cheap and abundant labour’ might just go away in future. They will have to invest in R&D and keep the innovation quotient high in the times to come to ensure their factories continue to work. There is lot to be learnt from other industrialized economies like Germany, France. Government should support the industry as its a very important stakeholder in the overall growth of the country. Initial risk sharing models (e.g PPP) might provide incentives to businesses to experiment newer technologies to improve efficiencies. There is a balance which can be achieved provided all the stakeholders play their part as per the script. This will also help reducing the ever growing load on the social and physical infrastructure in our cities.
Its easier said than done — all of the above, but its not impossible. I am not qualified enough to advice governments what should be done and how. All I want to express is that its time like these when innovation and creativity coupled with state intervention can help create a better future for millions living in rural areas. They shouldn’t be forced to leave their hometowns in search of a job in future. To draw an analogy from my favorite subject, War — USA was producing an aircraft carrier** (fleet carrier) every week during World War II and India produced only one indigenous aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant, in last six decades. Not that India can’t produce more quickly, its about the need of the hour. During WWII, naval warfare and supremacy at sea became the deciding factor hence significant attention and resources were diverted to achieve that. Also look at the way whole world is collaborating today for vaccine development for Covid-19. And in all likelihood, we will have the vaccine ready for commercial production by end of this year. So a process which normally takes 5–6 years has been curtailed to few months because no one has ever seen a pandemic of this scale. So this is it, period !
History tells us that the best innovation happens during the crisis not after the crisis. Government needs to listen to these workers, understand their pain and provide them a sustainable and a respectable future ELSE I can sense a revolution coming. Though I hope I am wrong !
Thanks for your reading. Will love to have your comments and observations.
Rgds, Vishal
*Usage of chemicals in farming was introduced during the Green Revolution in late 60s. The country was suffering from huge shortage of food grains and it was important to increase the production to become self sufficient.
** There is a big difference between the quality and variant of the aircraft carriers of today and the 40s.
